Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Young is a late-round flier whose path to consistent targets is blocked by two established starters, making him heavily reliant on an injury or a surprise depth-chart leap. Recent camp reports suggest he has the route-running and hands to surpass the incumbent third receiver, offering touchdown-dependent upside if he carves out a goal-line role. Risk is high, but his physical profile and contested-catch ability give him sleeper value as a final-round pick.

• 08/20 Low A superior route-runner with better hands than the incumbent third receiver, positioning him to leapfrog on the depth chart.
• 08/19 Low (100%) A rookie who has already worked ahead of other depth pieces on the receiver depth chart, putting him in position to see a real role if either starting receiver misses time.
• 08/13 Low (37%) The veteran ahead of him on the depth chart has graded poorly in target rate and yards per route run over recent seasons and struggles with drops, and playing-time reports suggest the rookie could win a larger role than currently expected if his separation ability translates.
• 08/05 Low (0%) His physical profile and ability to win contested catches near the goal line give him touchdown-dependent sleeper upside, though his production would lean heavily on scoring rather than a stable target share.
• 07/31 Low (0%) A big-bodied talent buried behind two established starting receivers in a pass-heavy offense, with value contingent mainly on an injury ahead of him.

Recent preseason reports confirm a secure lead role with no meaningful backfield competition, making Javonte Williams a strong value at his current RB17 ADP. His 1,200-yard, 13-touchdown season and contract extension solidify the floor, while the pass-heavy offense caps ceiling via limited receiving work. Draft as a high-floor RB2 in the middle rounds with weekly spike potential.

• 08/21 Must Have (54%) He handled roughly two-thirds of the backfield's carry share and over 75% of offensive snaps for most of last season with no meaningful competition added to the depth chart, giving him a workhorse role and a high, safe floor in a top-10 scoring offense.
• 08/19 High (51%) Coming off 1,201 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns as a lead back, he offers a rare combination of proven volume and touchdown production available in the middle rounds.
• 08/19 High (70%) Projected to average at least 13.5 half-PPR points per game with an expanding early-down role in a run-heavy scheme.
• 08/17 High (100%) Back in a workhorse role after a career-best efficiency season, he faces minimal proven competition in the backfield and plays for a franchise with a strong recent track record of leaning on a bell-cow rusher.
• 08/17 High (0%) Durability concerns have eased after a full, productive season, and the team has invested significant capital to keep him entrenched as the clear lead back, with the next-closest teammate more than 200 carries behind him last season.
• 08/16 Medium (51%) A 1,201-yard, 13-touchdown season in an explosive offense with strong volume commitment justifies staying in the same ADP range as comparable backs.
• 08/15 High (60%) Posted RB1-caliber production last season with 1,200-plus yards, 11 rushing touchdowns and a 4.8 yards-per-carry average, and enters camp with no real backfield competition to cut into that workload.
• 08/14 High Posted over 1,300 scrimmage yards and 13 total touchdowns last season while ranking among the league leaders in carries inside the five-yard line, a strong goal-line role inside one of the league's better offenses.
• 08/14 Medium (58%) Priced as a mid-round value pick in a format that rewards touchdown-dependent early-down work, with both expert rankings and market ADP more optimistic on his outlook than his default draft slot reflects.
• 08/13 Medium He returned legitimate RB1-level value last season and the team retained him over other options, signaling continued confidence in a real role.
• 08/12 Medium (77%) Started last season on a strong per-game scoring pace before cooling off late, and his team added no real backfield competition this offseason, positioning him for another workhorse-level opportunity.
• 08/05 Low (52%) Early-season efficiency in a favorable scheme faded significantly down the stretch, and workload wear plus injury history cap his ceiling; treat him as a volume-dependent depth option rather than a priority early-round selection.
• 08/05 High (0%) Minimal committee competition within a potentially high-scoring offense gives him a clear path to lead-back volume as a strong mid-round RB2.
• 08/04 High (0%) A new contract extension confirms his standing as the clear starter after a career-year workload last season, with weekly volume spikes into the 250-plus-attempt range and consistent scoring production supporting a strong floor even with a talented backup on the roster.
• 08/04 High (0%) Strong per-carry and goal-line efficiency in an offense projected for a top-ten scoring rate support upside relative to his current draft cost, even with a limited receiving role.
• 08/03 Medium Before his injury he handled the vast majority of his team's carries from the 1-yard line and converted most of them into scores, giving him a real path to continued goal-line touchdown work if he's back to full health.
• 07/31 Medium (64%) Solid per-game scoring in an explosive offense with clear goal-line involvement gives him a high floor at a discounted draft cost relative to how little he's being talked about.
• 07/25 High (0%) A secure starting role, goal-line efficiency and one of the league's fastest projected offenses give him a volume-backed RB2 floor with upside.
• 07/22 High (45%) A 1,300-yard breakout, no meaningful backfield competition and a productive offense give him a strong RB2 floor with top-10 upside if receiving work or touchdown luck improves.
• 07/20 High (0%) A secure three-down role, recovered tackle-breaking efficiency, and a favorable schedule give him a strong chance to beat an RB17 price.
• 07/19 Ignore (44%) Dallas is unlikely to repeat his 287-touch workload after Malik Davis outsnapped him in two of the final three games and two younger backs returned healthy.
• 07/18 Ignore (70%) He caught only 13 passes over his final 10 games and could remain an early-down runner in a pass-heavy offense. A touchdown-dependent profile with limited receiving work is too fragile for a third-round cost.
• 07/17 High (49%) A stronger defense should produce more positive game scripts, giving an efficient runner more chances to handle clock-killing volume while his team plays from ahead.
• 07/15 Ignore (37%) His third-round cost assumes another unusually high snap share and double-digit rushing-touchdown season, while limited receiving output makes the profile too dependent on carries and goal-line success.

Derrick Henry remains a high-priority target in the early to middle rounds, supported by eight consecutive double-digit touchdown seasons and a run-first offense that feeds him 300-plus carries. His current ADP near the RB13 offers significant upside, though limited receiving work and normal age decline risk keep him one tier below the elite pass-catching backs. Draft confidently in the late first or early second round in formats that reward rushing volume and touchdowns.

• 09/01 High Has been the league's second-leading rusher for four straight seasons and posted 13 games of 20-plus fantasy points over that stretch, including 12 games of 125-plus rushing yards across the past two years, production that supports being drafted nearly a round earlier than his current cost.
• 08/30 High (24%) No player is a better bet for a huge rushing game, with 12 games of 125-plus rushing yards over the past two seasons, the most in the NFL, and 13 games of 20-plus fantasy points despite limited receiving usage.
• 08/22 High (0%) A continued high-volume role in a potent offense, with added receiving-game upside, gives him a stable and productive profile heading into the season.
• 08/21 High (64%) His per-carry contact-adjusted efficiency actually improved year over year last season with no signs of decline on tape, and his team added no real competition at the position, so he enters the year as the clear workhorse with a strong baseline of expected touchdown production.
• 08/21 High (51%) Continues to produce at an elite level year after year despite his age, thriving on a heavy, efficient early-down workload.
• 08/21 Low (31%) Entering an eleventh NFL season, he's pushing into territory almost no running back has survived productively - only one back since 2010 has kept elite per-game production this deep into a career. Last season's huge output was historic, but the age-driven decline risk at this stage is real and worth pricing in at his draft cost.
• 08/20 Medium (100%) Handled over 300 carries for nearly 1,600 yards and 16 touchdowns last season at age 31, and remains the clear focal point of his offense, but advancing age keeps him behind younger backs with similar workloads and more receiving upside.
• 08/19 High (51%) Eight straight seasons of double-digit touchdowns and six top-10 finishes in the last seven years show sustained goal-line and short-yardage trust, with no clear decline signs yet into his early thirties.
• 08/19 High (70%) Heavy early-down carry share sustains a strong weekly floor, though production has dipped in games where the offense trails.
• 08/17 Low (79%) Finished top-8 at his position last year, but scored 14 or fewer points in 59% of his games and leaned heavily on two huge outings for 17% of his total; historically almost no back has sustained 250-plus fantasy points into his age-32 season.
• 08/16 Medium (62%) Henry's downhill running style is a strong scheme fit for outside-zone concepts, keeping his early-down role secure under the new coordinator.
• 08/16 High (51%) Top-10 finishes in six of the past seven seasons with no indication of decline despite his age make him a safe early-round pick.
• 08/16 High Eight consecutive seasons with double-digit touchdowns and improved efficiency since joining Baltimore make him a reasonable third-round pick.
• 08/14 High (58%) Any opportunity to draft him in the late-first to early-second-round range should be taken, and pairing him with an elite pass-catching back gives a half-PPR roster a rare combination of rushing volume and receiving upside at the position.
• 08/13 High He has out-rushed every other back in the league since joining his current team and remained elite in efficiency metrics last season despite his age, playing behind a reinvigorated coaching staff and offense that gives no indication of a workload decline yet.
• 08/12 High Has scored double-digit touchdowns in eight consecutive seasons and his per-touch efficiency has actually improved since a team change two years ago, with the surrounding offense projected to improve further behind a healthy starting quarterback.
• 08/11 High Remains the clear workhorse in a run-first offense built around his usage.
• 08/11 High (45%) Despite 2,851 career touches and his age, Henry posted 5.2 yards per carry, a 41% success rate and an 11.7% explosive run rate last season, all at or above his career averages, showing no signs of decline.
• 08/08 Low (70%) A track record of fading production when his team trails, combined with a new offensive system that could mean fewer called runs, adds real downside risk beyond typical age concerns.
• 08/07 High (45%) A true bellcow workload with rushing-share rates in the mid-60s to upper-60s and near-total goal-line control gives him one of the safest volume-driven floors at running back, supporting an early-round investment.
• 08/04 High (51%) A heavy-volume rushing role plays up in formats that de-emphasize receptions, and workhorse usage gives him a strong floor even with normal age-related risk factored into his draft cost.
• 08/03 High (0%) A top-10 fantasy finish last season is being drafted as the 13th running back off the board, a gap wide enough to justify an easy third-round value pick with no signs of decline yet.
• 08/03 Low A career-long pattern of minimal receiving work caps his weekly floor and keeps him a notch below true bell-cow RB1 status even with elite rushing production.
• 08/02 High (54%) A heavy-volume rushing role with minimal receiving work makes him a first-round-caliber pick in standard non-reception scoring, since his workload is largely insulated from format changes that hurt pass-catching backs.
• 07/31 High (72%) Remarkable durability and continued goal-line usage give him a strong touchdown floor even if efficiency regresses somewhat this season.
• 07/30 High (72%) Remarkable durability and a continued role as the automatic goal-line call give him a strong touchdown floor even if overall efficiency dips this season.
• 07/22 High (0%) Elite rushing efficiency, the league's strongest touchdown projection and a top-five projected offense keep his second-round ceiling high despite age-related decline and workload risk.
• 07/18 High (52%) Elite yards after contact against frequent stacked boxes show little evidence of decline, while a thin backfield makes another 300-carry season likely. Minimal receiving work lowers the PPR ceiling, but heavy volume and touchdown equity support a safe RB1 profile.
• 07/14 Medium (0%) Touchdown dependence and age add risk, but a strong offense still supports low-end RB1 value when he falls to late Round 2.
• 07/12 Medium Sustained high carry volume keeps him fantasy-relevant, but age and workload risk make him slightly less aggressive than the younger workhorse targets.

Greg Dulcich presents high-upside late-round value as a tight end with elite per-route efficiency and a clear path to leading Miami's thin receiving corps in targets. His late ADP (outside top 150) makes him a low-cost bet on a potential breakout, though a lengthy injury history requires a risk-tolerant approach.

• 09/01 Low Averaged nearly four targets and 7 fantasy points a game over the final ten weeks last season, and led all tight ends in yards after catch per reception while ranking second in yards per route run. Offseason departures at his position clear the way for him to be the primary trusted target this year.
• 08/31 Low (0%) A small but efficient prior-season sample and a reshaped receiving corps with a large number of vacated tight end targets make him a worthwhile late-round second tight end, though durability remains an obvious concern limiting him to a depth or early-season waiver play.
• 08/30 Low Emerged as an early camp focal point of the passing game behind a backup-caliber quarterback, offering speculative streaming value on a fresh start after a stint elsewhere that didn't pan out.
• 08/29 High (0%) Elite after-catch production and a returning coaching connection to a scheme that has previously produced strong tight end usage support real late-round breakout upside.
• 08/22 Medium The offense's proven perimeter weapons were traded away this offseason, leaving little established competition for targets underneath. Efficient yards-after-catch and route-running production from a full offseason as the top healthy option give him a path to weekly relevance even in a run-first passing attack.
• 08/21 Low (69%) A new coaching staff, a new starting quarterback, and one of the league's thinnest receiver depth charts leave the receiving-tight-end role wide open, and he finished as one of the offense's top pass-catchers in limited action late last season. He's a fringe roster dart throw this far outside the typical draft pool, but the target-share path is real if he holds the role.
• 08/20 High Ranked among the position's leaders in target-per-route-run rate and yards per route run last season, and a thin depth chart at the position makes him the likely every-down option in his offense.
• 08/20 Medium Now sits atop the depth chart after joining the team midway through last season, and none of the returning receivers have ever topped even 610 receiving yards in a season, leaving real target share available.
• 08/20 Low Elite per-route efficiency and yards-after-catch numbers when healthy, now positioned as the team's top tight end option against one of the easiest schedules at the position.
• 08/18 High (0%) He ranked second among tight ends in yards per route and yards after catch when on the field last year, and the two tight ends ahead of him on the depth chart are both gone, leaving him the clear top option for a quarterback in need of a reliable target behind one of the easiest tight-end schedules in the league.
• 08/18 Medium (0%) Stands to absorb meaningful target volume after multiple established pass-catchers departed the offense this offseason.
• 08/17 Medium Posted elite yards-per-route-run production in limited action last season and saw his target rate spike to an absurd level for a tight end late in the year, in an offense that lacks any proven receiving weapon.
• 08/15 Low (60%) Faces minimal target competition in a thin receiving room, flashed a 17% target share and a 9.0 PPR-point weekly average as a rookie down the stretch, and early camp reports have him as a primary target for his quarterback.
• 08/14 Low (0%) Lands in an offense with a wide-open target share at his position, and strong per-route production in a small sample gives him a path to a real role if he stays healthy.
• 08/14 Low (77%) Joins a new team without a proven established receiver, which opens a real path to leading the offense in tight end targets if no further additions are made before Week 1.
• 08/11 Low (51%) Playing in a receiver-thin offense, he's emerged as a primary practice target for the starting quarterback and posted some of the best yards-per-route-run marks at the position late last season, though the small sample keeps him a speculative late-round dart throw rather than a lock.
• 08/10 Medium (0%) Ranked among the top tight ends in the league in targets and yards per route run over a healthy late-season stretch, in an offense with no other proven receiving threats to compete with for targets.
• 08/01 High Was one of the most efficient tight ends in football last season, and with the team's top two receivers now gone he is the favorite to pace a thin receiving group.
• 07/31 Low Landed in a receiving room with no proven top target, giving him a real path to leading his team in targets after posting elite efficiency numbers last season.
• 07/30 High (100%) A wave of departures at receiver opens up well over 200 vacated targets in this offense, and he profiles as the top target-getter among the remaining tight ends, giving him a high floor at a cheap draft cost.
• 07/28 Medium (0%) Limited career offensive opportunity so far, but a thin receiving room gives him a path to exceed his career-high target total; better viewed as a matchup-based option than a weekly starter.
• 07/28 High (65%) Finished the season as one of the position's most efficient options by yards per route run, and an unsettled receiving room gives him a real path to leading the team in targets under a new coaching staff.
• 07/28 High (0%) Lands in a receiving room with almost no proven target competition after a coaching and quarterback overhaul, giving him a realistic path to leading the team in targets despite a modest draft cost.
• 07/28 Medium (60%) The subtraction of multiple established pass-catchers clears real target volume, and a scheme with a track record of heavily featuring tight ends gives him a low-cost path to relevant production once healthy.
• 07/27 Medium (100%) Elite per-route efficiency metrics in limited action last season, plus a rebuilding offense that lost its top tight end option, set up a real path to increased target volume worth portfolio action.
• 07/26 High Elite per-route efficiency last season plus a thin depth chart behind him give him a clear path to every-down tight end work in an offense that needs pass-catching help.
• 07/25 High (100%) A thin Miami receiving corps creates a path to lead the team in targets, and his 2.31 yards per route run last season showed strong efficiency when healthy.
• 07/22 Low (0%) A tight-end-friendly scheme and a depleted receiver room create a path to lead the team in targets, while an undrafted price keeps the downside minimal.
• 07/22 Medium (58%) An unsettled receiver room and little investment in pass-catching tight ends leave him positioned as the primary receiving option at the position and a viable late-round sleeper.
• 07/21 High (100%) Strong per-route efficiency and an unsettled Miami receiving corps give him a realistic path to lead the team in targets despite his late-round price.
• 07/21 Medium (28%) Minimal target competition and strong per-route efficiency give him a path to an every-down role and second on the team in targets, though durability and offense quality add risk.
• 07/19 Low He ranked fifth in targets per route and second in yards per route among qualifying tight ends, while Miami's depleted receiver room creates a path to finish top two on the team in targets.
• 07/19 Low (79%) He has the inside track to start in Miami, where the depth chart lacks reliable pass catchers and Darren Waller's departure leaves targets available.
• 07/18 Low (77%) Miami lacks an established receiver, giving him an outside path to lead the team in targets despite an unreliable career start. He is a late-round upside flier rather than a dependable starter.
• 07/18 High (70%) He ranked second among tight ends in yards per route run and could become one of Miami's top two targets amid an unsettled receiver room. A prominent early-season role gives him breakout potential at a near-free draft cost.
• 07/17 Low (0%) Elite yards-per-route and yards-after-catch efficiency meet a wide-open Miami target tree after three prominent pass catchers departed.
• 07/15 High (0%) Top-five target-per-route and yards-per-route efficiency among qualified tight ends, plus early chemistry with Malik Willis, provide breakout upside at a lottery-ticket price.
• 07/15 Low (0%) Strong per-route efficiency and minimal target competition create late-round upside, but three career touchdowns and a limited track record make him a low-cost bet rather than a core target.
• 07/15 Medium (0%) Downfield speed separates him from the other tight ends on the roster and a thin receiving group could expand his target share, but health and quarterback chemistry keep him best suited to late best-ball exposure.
• 07/15 High (69%) A depleted receiving corps gives him a realistic chance to finish among the team's top two target earners, and his strong late-season yardage makes a draft price well outside the top 150 unusually cheap.
• 07/13 Low (0%) A thin Miami receiving corps and late-season target flashes create near-free upside, with durability risk already priced into his late ADP.
• 07/12 High (0%) Elite per-route efficiency and a thin Miami tight end depth chart give him a path to every-down usage at a cheap draft cost.
• 07/12 Low Prior rookie production and a clearer depth-chart opportunity keep him interesting as a late tight-end flier despite a long injury history.
• 07/12 Low A weak target tree and late-season usage give him TE2 flier appeal, but prior false starts and modest production keep the draft cost limited.

His sophomore season was a letdown, but the draft cost has adjusted enough to buy a 1,280-yard rookie ceiling at a discount. Camp reports and a healthy offseason suggest a bounce-back role, though quarterback reliance and target competition keep the floor volatile. The risk is moderate for the potential top-12 payoff.

• 09/02 Ignore His per-game production has been markedly worse with his current quarterback than it was under a different starter two seasons ago, and there is no quarterback change on the horizon to fix that mismatch.
• 08/30 High (0%) A perimeter role has emerged with consistent target-volume increases through camp and preseason work, undervalued relative to his current market price.
• 08/23 Ignore (75%) Slipped in the target pecking order behind more reliable possession options in his team's passing game, leaving him more as a boom-or-bust big-play piece than a locked-in high-volume target at his current price.
• 08/23 Medium (0%) Coming off a disappointing sophomore campaign similar in shape to a receiver being drafted more than fifteen rounds earlier, the gap in current draft cost is difficult to justify on recent performance alone. That price separation makes him a value play relative to pricier receivers with a comparable recent statistical profile.
• 08/21 Ignore Ranked only fourth on his own team in targets last season behind three teammates, a sign of real target-share competition, and faces a tough first-half schedule loaded with elite cornerback matchups.
• 08/21 Low (75%) Multiple more reliable target competitors have pushed him down the pecking order after a slower stretch, leaving him more of a big-play-dependent option for now.
• 08/19 Ignore A muddled receiving room with three competing options, production that leaned on a backup quarterback rather than the current starter who favors other pass catchers, plus a difficult early schedule against top cornerbacks.
• 08/19 High (100%) Was significantly more efficient working from the slot before an alignment change reduced his target rate, but a new offensive coordinator with a track record of unlocking similar receiver profiles plus positive touchdown regression point to a rebound season at a discounted price.
• 08/18 Medium (35%) A lingering injury quietly sapped his efficiency last season despite a usage rate close to his breakout rookie year, and he says the injury no longer affects him heading into a full offseason of recovery.
• 08/15 Low Profiles as a high-variance, air-yards-dependent receiver whose 2025 production was fueled by a spike in offensive plays that is likely to regress this season on a team that ranked among the league's slowest-paced offenses.
• 08/14 High (31%) A down second season came with real off-field and injury context that muddies the read on his talent, and his rookie-year efficiency profile still ranked among the league's best at a mid-round draft cost that undersells that ceiling.
• 08/14 Medium (77%) A strong, well-reported training camp points to bounce-back potential after a disappointing second season, though a genuinely crowded receiving corps caps him more as a big-play complement than a clear lead target earner.
• 08/10 Ignore (0%) Touchdown production fell off sharply from the prior season and target share trended down, with at least one lower-cost receiver in a similar range offering a safer weekly outlook.
• 08/07 High (70%) Consistently strong camp reports and improving chemistry with his quarterback on deep passing concepts point toward an expanded role as a primary receiving option.
• 08/07 Low (0%) A route tree skewed heavily toward low-percentage vertical routes makes it difficult to project a high target floor, and an early schedule stacked with top cornerback matchups adds week-to-week volatility.
• 08/03 Medium (0%) A big rookie-year ceiling that didn't carry into year two has pushed him to a WR31 price; a talented supporting cast gives him a path back to lead-receiver production if he reclaims that role.
• 08/01 High (0%) A rookie season with over 1,280 yards and 10 touchdowns, including seven straight games of at least 75 yards, established elite-receiver traits that a single down year has now pushed to a discounted draft cost.
• 08/01 Medium (64%) He played through injuries for most of last season and has since said the pain that limited him is resolved, and his rare athletic ability to separate against press coverage makes a bounce-back in a healthier, more multi-faceted role plausible.
• 07/29 Medium Production splits heavily by quarterback, performing far better with the backup than with the projected starter, which adds real uncertainty to his weekly floor.
• 07/28 Low (0%) A sharp drop in easy underneath targets and screens last year reflects a real scheme role change, not just a nagging injury, and increased competition for targets in his receiver room caps his floor even though the big-play speed remains real.
• 07/26 Ignore (0%) His per-game production was far stronger with a different quarterback under center than it has been with the incumbent starter, and that starter isn't expected to change in 2026.
• 07/26 Low (79%) His per-game scoring output has been considerably stronger with a different quarterback than his current starter, and that quarterback-dependent efficiency gap is a real risk factor heading into another season with the same signal-caller.
• 07/17 High (0%) A disappointing second season has depressed his cost despite a previous top-five finish and enough youth and talent to rebound strongly.
• 07/17 Ignore (0%) His rebound case is plausible, but comparable upside options such as Makai Lemon and Parker Washington are available roughly 10 picks later.
• 07/16 Medium (69%) A disappointing sophomore season creates uncertainty, but Jacksonville's receivers face the sixth-easiest positional schedule and his current cost leaves room for a rebound without requiring an aggressive investment.
• 07/15 Medium (51%) A downfield-heavy role creates weekly volatility after his short-area targets were cut in half, but a fifth- or sixth-round cost still carries top-12 upside if the offense restores the underneath usage that fueled his rookie breakout.

Sam LaPorta's current ADP in the mid-rounds as the TE8 off the board presents a compelling value for a player with a top-three positional ceiling. A new offensive coordinator known for featuring tight ends and a high-powered Detroit offense provide a clear path to elite target volume if he stays healthy. The lingering back and hip concerns temper the floor, but the upside at his cost outweighs the risk for drafters willing to invest in a bounce-back candidate.

• 09/03 Medium His offense runs three-tight-end sets far more often than league average while targeting wide receivers well below average, a scheme tilt that favors his position, and he was a rookie-year TE1 before an injury-shortened prior season depressed his current price.
• 09/02 Medium (0%) He was producing top-eight tight end numbers before back surgery ended his season, and coaching staff comments suggest he is trending toward full health for a high-scoring offense with a lofty ceiling.
• 08/22 High (0%) A full return from back surgery that limited him to nine games last season gives him a clean path back to top-tier target volume at his position.
• 08/22 Low (47%) A hip issue has clouded his availability for the opener on top of a prior back surgery, and his target-per-route rate trailed comparable tight ends last season even when healthy. A talented supporting cast still gives him weekly upside if the price drops enough to offset the injury risk.
• 08/22 Low (100%) A new hip issue on top of a prior back surgery and missed games raises real availability risk heading into the opener. If the price continues to drop on draft boards, the offensive talent around him still gives him spike-week upside as a late add, but a backup plan at the position is wise.
• 08/22 Medium (0%) A recent hip injury has limited practice time and clouds his availability for the season opener, adding a real health question to an otherwise strong outlook under a new offensive coordinator. The talent and target share remain among the best at the position when healthy, but recent injury history at this spot warrants a modest markdown until he is fully cleared.
• 08/21 High (70%) A new offensive coordinator with a track record of funneling a quarter or more of the passing game to tight ends should boost his target share, giving him a path to a top-three finish at the position despite a draft price that reflects a much later pick.
• 08/21 High (57%) On pace for roughly 75 catches and eight touchdowns over a full season, with elite marks in catch rate, yards per route run against zone coverage, and yards after catch. He is the clear No. 2 receiving option in the offense after fully recovering from a disc injury, giving him one of the better floor-to-ceiling profiles at the position relative to his draft cost.
• 08/21 Low (63%) An extensive injury history, including a hyperextended knee, a sprained AC joint, back surgery, and a more recent hip issue, raises availability concerns that sit at odds with his high draft cost.
• 08/19 High (77%) A new offensive system creates a path back to his rookie-year per-game scoring level, offering strong value at his current draft cost.
• 08/19 High (62%) Was on pace for a career year with a strong target share and red-zone role before a back injury ended his season early, and profiles as a clear second read behind the top wideout on a top-tier passing offense; a schedule that is mostly indoor or in mild-weather locations for the bulk of the season supports a favorable efficiency environment.
• 08/15 High (0%) Ranked far above where he is typically being drafted, often falling outside the top 75 picks overall despite talent and offensive role that this analyst views as top-53 overall caliber.
• 08/15 Medium (64%) Limited to nine games last season by injury, but his prior two full seasons produced 60-plus catches and at least seven touchdowns each, making him a prime bounce-back candidate in the same offense.
• 08/12 High (70%) A new offensive coordinator has a track record of funneling a high share of team targets to the tight end position, and a banged-up secondary should push his offense into more frequent, higher-scoring passing situations that support both his target and touchdown upside.
• 08/11 Medium (100%) Continues to command a strong target share in a high-powered offense, making him one of the safer weekly-starter bets at the position even without an elite ceiling.
• 08/11 Medium (77%) A new offensive scheme built around heavier tight end usage sets up a return to the target volume that made him a difference-maker as a rookie.
• 08/08 Ignore (0%) Coming off back surgery for a herniated disc, he is still being drafted at a cost that does not reflect that injury risk. He also has not recaptured the target volume or efficiency from his rookie season, making the current price a mismatch for the risk involved.
• 08/07 Medium (72%) His receiving role and target volume support a top-five valuation at tight end, offering a reliable weekly floor at the position relative to his draft cost.
• 08/06 Medium A path to increased red-zone opportunity after a lead back's departure could reverse a down season for a player who still posted career-high per-game production.
• 08/04 Medium (9%) He is working back from a significant back injury and, assuming a normal recovery timeline before the season, projects as a mid-tier starting tight end if healthy, though the recovery itself remains the primary swing factor.
• 08/03 Medium (0%) Injuries slowed an otherwise strong track record last season, and a return to his earlier form as a clear top-3 target in the passing game would outperform his eighth-tight-end price.
• 08/03 Medium A career-high mark in receiving yards last season and the departure of a committee backfield mate point toward a bigger red-zone role and target share this year.
• 08/02 Medium (70%) He is safer than most late-round options but lacks a clear path to the heavy target share needed to reach the top tier at his position.
• 08/01 High (0%) Posted a historically great rookie season at tight end with 86 catches, nearly 900 yards and 10 touchdowns, and his price has fallen mainly because of a single injury-shortened season rather than any decline in his underlying offense's passing environment.
• 08/01 High He posted a career high in receiving yards last season despite missing half the schedule, and the team's departure of a short-yardage back who scored 11 touchdowns a season in his time there should push more red-zone opportunities his way now that he is fully healthy.
• 07/31 Ignore (0%) Usage has settled into complementary tight-end volume over the past two seasons rather than the focal-point role from his rookie year, with target distribution now spread more evenly among a deep receiving corps.
• 07/31 High (72%) A strong quarterback, easy early schedule, and indoor-heavy environment make his current mid-range draft cost a buying opportunity after an injury-shortened down year.
• 07/30 High (100%) Ranks among the position's efficiency leaders in yards per route run and touchdowns despite a lower target rate caused by crowded target competition, and a new offensive coordinator with a track record of heavily featuring tight ends should help push that target rate higher.
• 07/29 Medium Fully recovered from back surgery and in a high-volume passing offense, he has a real path back to his rookie-year target pace while carrying improved per-target efficiency.
• 07/29 Low Hasn't replicated his historic rookie-year pace since, and back injuries limited him to nine games last season, making his current draft cost a risk relative to his recent floor.
• 07/29 Low Talented receiving tight end in a strong offense, but the position carries a hard weekly ceiling and the draft cost is closer to elite-WR pricing than typical tight-end value.
• 07/28 Medium (0%) Reuniting with the play-caller who heavily featured another top tight end is a positive signal, but more target competition at his current stop and a recovery from back surgery temper the outlook.
• 07/25 High (70%) A tight-end-friendly coordinator and a draft cost several rounds below his projected production create attractive upside.
• 07/25 High (0%) A return to full health, career-best receiving efficiency and additional red-zone opportunities create strong rebound value at his current cost.
• 07/20 High When healthy he re-established himself as the offense's No. 2 target earner, a role capable of returning top-three tight-end production at a seventh-round price.
• 07/19 Ignore Injury concerns and target competition reduce his separation from cheaper tight ends, making a premium pick less attractive than waiting on the position.
• 07/19 Medium (79%) He is expected to be ready for the season after injury and retains a clear path to starting-caliber production in Detroit's offense.
• 07/18 High (77%) Improved health and a coordinator with a strong history of featuring tight ends give him top-five upside. His rookie production already showed he can convert that role into high-end fantasy output.
• 07/18 Medium (51%) His rookie season showed elite upside, but back surgery and two less productive years introduce meaningful risk. He remains a worthwhile target after the top tier if camp reports confirm his health.
• 07/18 Low (69%) A lingering back issue adds health risk, and an increasingly crowded offense now has several established target and red-zone threats that reduce his chance of returning to an elite fantasy ceiling.
• 07/14 High (0%) A TE8 floor in consecutive seasons and a prior overall TE1 finish make his current TE8 price attractive if touchdown production rebounds.

Burrow projects as a high-end QB1 with top-three weekly upside when healthy, fueled by elite weapons and a pass-first offense. His draft cost has dropped due to durability concerns, making him a strong target in the middle rounds. The risk is real, but the ceiling is worth the gamble at his current ADP.

• 09/02 High (0%) He finished as a top-three fantasy quarterback in the stretches he was healthy each of the last two seasons and still has an elite two-receiver duo to throw to, making him a strong value if other positions are prioritized early.
• 09/01 Must Have Commands a top-end passing offense that must lean on the air attack to compensate for a shaky defense, with elite receiving talent at his disposal and no dedicated short-yardage back to siphon off goal-line passing touchdowns.
• 08/24 Medium He projects as a top passer in attempts, completions, and touchdowns, but limited rushing value pulls his overall scoring outlook down relative to other quarterbacks in his draft-cost tier who add real ceiling and floor with their legs, making him a fine pick a couple rounds later than his current cost.
• 08/22 High (45%) A track record of elite per-game production in prior healthy seasons, including two prior return-from-injury seasons that both ended among the position's best, supports a bounce-back case. An offensive scheme shift toward more under-center snaps, pre-snap motion and multiple-tight-end sets should raise the offense's overall efficiency if he stays on the field.
• 08/21 High (100%) Offers little on the ground, but the offense's passing volume and touchdown rate make him one of the league's premier touchdown passers when healthy, ideal for a quarterback profile that doesn't need rushing production to be elite.
• 08/21 High (57%) Averaged nearly 4,700 yards and 39 touchdowns per full season historically, throwing to arguably the league's best receiver duo. Durability is the swing factor after missing significant time in three of his last six seasons, but the weekly ceiling in full health is elite QB1 territory.
• 08/19 High (64%) Coming off an elite full season (nearly 22 points per game, 43 total touchdowns) with two proven high-target receivers, he profiles as a top-three quarterback option across a full 17-game season.
• 08/19 High (70%) A pass-heavy, high-volume offense with quality receiving weapons supports elite weekly scoring upside.
• 08/15 High (64%) Averaged nearly 22 fantasy points per game and threw 43 touchdowns in his last full healthy season with two premier receiving targets, though he has missed at least seven games in two of the past three years.
• 08/14 High (64%) In his one fully healthy season he posted top-three quarterback scoring with over 40 touchdown passes, and he still has two premier receiving targets to work with, supporting top-tier QB1 upside at a mid-tier ADP cost.
• 08/11 High (77%) Was one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league across a full healthy season two years ago, and he closed last year on a similarly torrid pace once healthy again.
• 08/11 High (77%) Closing last season on a torrid stretch once fully healthy, he profiles as a low-end QB1 in a pass-heavy offense stocked with healthy receiving weapons.
• 08/10 Medium If he is still available in the middle rounds after a run on the top tier of quarterbacks, his per-game passing volume and touchdown upside make him a clear value play worth prioritizing at that discounted cost.
• 08/07 High (64%) Career touchdown efficiency ranks among the best of any quarterback in recent history, supporting a high per-dropback scoring rate whenever he stays on the field for a full slate of starts.
• 08/05 High (70%) A pass-heavy offense with high-end receiving weapons supports elite weekly passing volume, giving him a stable floor even without a significant rushing element.
• 08/04 Ignore (0%) Elite receiving weapons and a defense likely to force shootouts support the talent case, but recent injury history combined with a draft cost that overlaps several lower-risk quarterback alternatives makes him a tough value at his current price in standard scoring, even though six-point passing-touchdown formats change the calculus.
• 08/04 High (64%) When on the field he remains one of the most efficient passers in the league and finished as a top-three weekly scorer over the final stretch of last season, though recurring injuries and an age-30 season create real availability risk worth weighing against his ceiling.
• 08/01 Medium He sits in a tier that carries more bust risk than the top quarterbacks but has a similar ceiling outcome if things break right, offering a discount route to potential top-five quarterback production.
• 07/29 Medium A return to full health puts him back in position to reclaim fantasy relevance after a lost stretch, with the elite arm talent and receiving weapons still fully in place.
• 07/29 Medium Elite talent and a proven ceiling, but drafting him too early can cost a roster a difference-making piece at a scarcer position; better value is available a round or two later.
• 07/25 Ignore (100%) He has missed at least six games in three of six seasons, and an improved defense could reduce the negative game scripts and passing volume that support his premium fantasy ceiling.
• 07/24 Ignore (0%) Repeated health risk is difficult to absorb at his price when quarterbacks available several rounds later project within a few fantasy points.
• 07/23 High (0%) Improved health, an elite receiving duo and a potentially steadier offensive line create a path to lead the league in passing yards and touchdowns, with a favorable stretch-run schedule.
• 07/15 High (51%) His healthy-season ceiling remains firmly inside the top five at the position, making the current optimism worth buying despite an injury history that adds meaningful risk.
• 07/15 Low (60%) A bottom-five offensive line compounds his recurring injury risk, and minimal rushing production means he needs another career-best passing season to justify being drafted among the first five quarterbacks.