Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Recurring calf strain has sidelined him through preseason, eroding chemistry with his quarterback and creating significant Week 1 availability risk. A crowded target hierarchy with a returning veteran and an established WR1 further limits his path to consistent volume. Even at a late cost, the combination of injury uncertainty and reduced role makes him a poor draft investment.

• 08/22 Low (0%) A recurring calf injury threatens his Week 1 availability, and a returning veteran complementary receiver further narrows his path to consistent targets behind an established WR1.
• 08/20 Ignore (0%) A calf strain, which carries real reinjury risk, has kept him out of team work and further delayed chemistry-building with his quarterback, and a new receiving-room addition has removed the roster-spot rationale he had left.
• 07/31 Low (0%) A crowded target hierarchy following an offseason addition and a returning veteran figures to take a real bite out of his snap share and target volume.
• 07/18 High (62%) A move into a productive passing scheme gives him a path to steady underneath targets, while injuries surrounding the offense's other veteran playmakers could expand his role. His late cost makes that potential volume a useful PPR dart.

Love offers a discounted draft cost relative to his elite per-dropback efficiency, with multiple experts projecting a top-12 finish if Green Bay shifts toward a more pass-heavy approach. However, his reliance on passing touchdowns rather than rushing, combined with a run-first offensive philosophy and recent inconsistency as a weekly starter, keeps him a high-upside QB2 rather than a must-start QB1. Draft him as a value pick with the expectation of spike weeks rather than weekly baseline production.

• 09/03 Ignore (100%) He plays in one of the league's most run-heavy offenses, which ran among the fewest offensive plays in football last season, and his own rushing production has declined in each of the last two years, limiting his fantasy ceiling despite strong underlying play.
• 09/02 Medium Runs the offense in a top-tier scoring unit with multiple healthy weapons, and a projected uptick in pass rate as the ground game deals with health questions supports a higher weekly ceiling.
• 09/01 Medium Among the most efficient passers in the league on a per-dropback basis over the last several seasons. A coaching emphasis on faster tempo and quicker snaps this preseason, combined with a suspension to the lead back that should push more plays through the air, points toward a higher-volume passing role this year.
• 08/31 Medium A top-12 weekly quarterback in a large share of games over the past three seasons, offering multiple rounds of value versus his current draft slot despite some uncertainty at receiver.
• 08/30 High (0%) Target competition thinned after two receivers departed, redirecting volume to the top two remaining wideouts, while the top tight end returns from a torn ACL after finishing as a top scorer at the position before injury; a full return to opportunity supports upside relative to his current draft cost.
• 08/21 Low (100%) Has enough arm talent to produce big weeks, but the consistency hasn't been there, keeping him a fringe streaming option best deployed when the matchup is favorable rather than a weekly must-start.
• 08/20 Low (75%) Remains efficient on a per-attempt basis and should see his pass volume climb after the team invested significant money and draft capital into its receiving corps.
• 08/19 Low (70%) Passing-driven scoring profile without much rushing floor limits weekly upside relative to dual-threat options.
• 08/18 Medium (0%) A career-best passing season is achievable if the offense's historically weak play-calling forces more throwing volume, aided by a streamlined receiver rotation that should improve efficiency.
• 08/14 Medium (0%) Improved surrounding skill talent and an offense projected to play at a faster pace support a real chance at more dropbacks and a top-12 season, offering low-end QB1 value at a discounted draft cost.
• 08/13 High He has ranked among the most efficient passers in the league by advanced metrics over the past two seasons despite a run-first offensive approach, and off-field discipline issues at running back plus an offensive overhaul point toward a larger pass-first role this year.
• 08/11 High (44%) Ranks among the league's most efficient quarterbacks by EPA per play over the past three seasons with a strong average depth of target, and finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback for most of last season before an in-season injury derailed his receiving corps; a healthy receiving group returning in 2026 supports a top-10 or top-12 finish well above his current draft cost.
• 08/11 Low (77%) Has underperformed his real-life production in fantasy terms the past two seasons, but a potential uptick in offensive volume under his coordinator could close that gap.
• 08/11 Low (69%) He hasn't finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in either of the past two seasons, and his rushing production has cratered from 247 yards and four scores in an earlier season to just 282 yards and one touchdown combined over the last two years. The spike-week upside is real but increasingly unreliable.
• 08/07 Low (51%) Plays in a run-first offense that has consistently capped his passing volume under 30 attempts a game, limiting weekly ceiling relative to his draft price.
• 08/04 High (51%) He ranked second in the league in efficiency per dropback last season, and a stated shift toward a more pass-heavy offensive approach this year could meaningfully increase his weekly volume, giving him upside beyond his current draft cost.
• 08/03 High (0%) A strong touchdown-to-interception season despite missing games is being priced as a backup-tier quarterback, even as the surrounding playmaker group continues to mature around him.
• 08/03 Low A new starting left tackle and interior line concerns following personnel losses threaten to increase pressure on him after already ranking near the bottom of the league in pressure-to-sack rate, a downside risk for both him and his pass catchers.
• 08/01 Medium He finished second in the league in EPA per play last season, and the analysis rates him above his current redraft ADP, making him a solid buy as a complementary QB2 pick rather than a clear starter investment.
• 07/24 Medium (0%) Green Bay retained its core receivers and gained another offseason of continuity, offering a talented passer a path from sporadic peaks to a full productive season.
• 07/23 Ignore (60%) A run-heavy offense and a coach who has limited passing volume reduce the odds of him beating an elevated quarterback price.
• 07/17 Ignore (0%) Back-to-back finishes outside the top 12 combine with a pressured offensive line, lost receiving production, and uncertainty around Tucker Kraft's recovery.
• 07/15 Medium (0%) Elite passing-efficiency metrics preserve value, but a run-heavy offense and little rushing production make him a QB2 target rather than a player to reach for.
• 07/13 High (51%) A more pass-centric offense would pair with strong recent efficiency and accuracy, giving him a path to beat a modest quarterback draft slot.

Shough's late-round ADP does not reflect his top-8 per-game fantasy scoring down the stretch as a rookie, supported by designed rushing and an improved supporting cast. The primary risk is his strong efficiency against weaker defenses, but a full season as the starter in a high-pace offense with multiple new weapons justifies a high-upside draft investment.

• 09/03 High (0%) He posted QB9-level weekly scoring from midseason onward once installed as the starter, flashing real rushing juice on top of the passing production, in a high-pace offense that projects to be involved in plenty of shootouts given its weak division.
• 09/03 Medium After taking over as starter midseason, he posted one of the better passing grades among qualified quarterbacks with a low turnover-worthy play rate, and the team has since added receiving weapons that give him an improved supporting cast heading into a full season as starter.
• 09/02 High (49%) He closed his rookie year with three 270-plus passing yard games in his last four and showed strong chemistry with his top receiver, and added weapons plus a fast-paced play-caller support a top-12 fantasy finish.
• 09/02 Medium (0%) A healthy rookie receiver joining the offense adds explosive speed to the passing attack, and his draft stock has been steadily climbing through August camp reports.
• 09/02 Medium (37%) After a rough start he averaged strong fantasy production over his final eight games while adding rushing scores, and additional offensive weapons this offseason support another step forward.
• 09/01 Low (0%) Offers real goal-line rushing upside as a dual-threat quarterback with big-play perimeter weapons around him, giving him boom-week ceiling a traditional pocket passer lacks. Best treated as a late-round stash or high-upside backup rather than a core roster piece.
• 09/01 Ignore His strongest late-season stretch came almost entirely against weaker defenses, and his production away from that stretch was far more modest. With a rookie receiver sidelined and only one proven target left in the passing game, tougher defenses are likely to expose those weaknesses.
• 09/01 Low Showed clear signs of turning a corner in the back half of his rookie season, and second-year quarterbacks have historically added roughly six fantasy points per game over their rookie output on average.
• 08/30 Medium (70%) Yardage pace from his nine starts last year already projects near a top-14 quarterback finish, with improved touchdown efficiency expected in year two.
• 08/24 Low (64%) Flashed real rushing ability as a rookie and enters Year 2 in an offensive system known for creating quarterback opportunity with an upgraded supporting cast, giving him a path to low-end QB1 numbers without needing to become an elite passer.
• 08/23 Low (0%) A speculative late-round stash whose fantasy value depends heavily on whether a red-zone rushing role carries over into the regular season; worth roster consideration in deeper leagues but not a priority target.
• 08/21 High (100%) Averaged over 18 fantasy points per game down the stretch of his rookie season, a rate that topped several higher-tier quarterbacks over that span, and the offense added a receiving back and a receiver this offseason to build on that late-season production.
• 08/21 Low (65%) A full season of starting reps after strong efficiency marks over his final nine games last year, plus an upgraded offensive line, backfield, and a new top-ten-pick receiving weapon, give him a path to low-end QB1 value even at a very late draft cost.
• 08/21 Medium (31%) As a second-year passer, he's entering the stage of the quarterback aging curve most associated with a jump from rookie struggles to a more productive floor, making his current draft cost look light relative to the historical range of outcomes.
• 08/20 Low (75%) Finished as a top-12 quarterback by average over the second half of last season with added rushing production, and a full season with his receiving corps in a downfield-friendly scheme supports that pace continuing.
• 08/20 Low A second-year passer with a rookie receiver who offers explosive downfield speed, giving him some late-round upside if the rookie stays healthy.
• 08/19 Medium (70%) Strong per-game production in a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense down the stretch supports a solid floor at a low draft cost.
• 08/19 Low (0%) A strong recent stretch came largely against softer pass defenses, with a real production gap between tougher and weaker opponents, and the receiving corps thins out further with a key rookie target expected to miss significant time, clouding the passing outlook.
• 08/18 High (0%) Over the final seven weeks of last season he ranked as a top-six fantasy quarterback with strong yards-per-attempt and passing-yardage marks, while adding real rushing production. The team used premium draft capital and free-agent additions to add more weapons around him this offseason, and he is going in the same range as other late-round QB targets.
• 08/18 Medium (0%) Played like a top-8 fantasy quarterback on a per-game basis from midseason on last year, with real rushing upside and a favorable dome schedule against weak defenses.
• 08/18 Medium (0%) Finished last season strong and now has a new offensive coordinator plus added receiving weapons, with rushing ability already demonstrated as a real part of his floor.
• 08/17 High (79%) Was the eighth-best fantasy quarterback over his final five weeks as a rookie starter, putting up 17-plus points in all but one outing, and the team added a proven receiving weapon and a rookie target to a passing game already trending up.
• 08/16 Low (51%) A developing sophomore option worth only selective, late-round attention in superflex formats.
• 08/15 Medium (57%) Threw for 230-plus yards in seven of his final eight starts and earned his head coach's trust as the full-time starter, with his final four-game stretch producing 1,172 yards and five touchdowns against a single interception.
• 08/14 Medium (64%) Finished as a top-four scorer over the back half of last season with double-digit points in every one of those games, and added rookie receiving help alongside his existing rushing production give him a path to push into true QB1 territory.
• 08/13 Medium He finished as a top-12 weekly scorer at his position once he took over as a rookie starter, and the offseason additions of a lead running back and a rookie receiver should raise his passing efficiency even if some of last year's favorable matchup luck doesn't repeat.
• 08/11 High (0%) Finished as a top rookie passer last season, leading first-year quarterbacks in passing yards per game, completion percentage, and passer rating while adding three rushing touchdowns; growing chemistry with a full receiving corps supports strong QB2 value in superflex and best-ball formats.
• 08/11 Low Reported to be noticeably more comfortable and in command of the offense entering his second season, with the team adding a receiver and a veteran running back this offseason while keeping offensive continuity with the same play-caller in place.
• 08/11 Low (77%) Closed his rookie season on a strong per-game scoring pace as the full-time starter, and the offense added a receiver and a pass-catching back this offseason while keeping the same play-caller in place.
• 08/11 Medium (69%) Once he took over as the starter in Week 9 last season, he averaged the 12th-most fantasy points per game among quarterbacks over his nine starts while ranking near the top of the league in several efficiency metrics, and he added three rushing touchdowns down the stretch. The additions of a first-round wideout, a new starting running back, and an offensive lineman only improve his surrounding cast in a fast-paced offense.
• 08/10 Low (0%) Closed last season with six straight weeks inside the top 16 at the position, pairing an efficient completion rate with real rushing production, while his team has invested draft capital in new pass-catchers.
• 08/09 High (0%) Posted strong per-game fantasy scoring over his final six starts last season, with added rushing ability that provides a real weekly floor and upside in deeper formats.
• 08/09 High Posted a top-6 fantasy points-per-game rate at the position over his final stretch as a starter, and the receiving corps supporting him this season is stronger than the one he played with during that run.
• 08/08 Medium (79%) Ranked as a top-eight fantasy quarterback over his final five starts to close last season, and the offense added meaningful skill-position talent around him for a full season.
• 08/05 Medium (54%) A fast-paced offense, added receiving weapons, and a strong second-half rookie season support him as a low-cost streaming option, though a run-heavy approach near the goal line has capped his touchdown rate.
• 08/04 Medium (79%) Closed his rookie season with seven straight high-scoring outings, and added weapons at receiver and running back this offseason support continued volume.
• 08/03 High Finished last season on a strong stretch as the starter and now has a notably upgraded receiving corps, including a rookie top-10 pick and a lead back added in the offseason, setting up a real step forward this year.
• 08/03 Medium A strong finish to his rookie season, an improved receiving corps, and a full offseason to command the offense point to QB1-caliber upside despite currently being drafted behind several other passers.
• 07/31 High (62%) Strong second-half rookie pace as a starter, now entering a full offseason with the same play-caller and an upgraded receiving corps, pointing to real top-10 quarterback upside.
• 07/31 Medium (64%) A strong finish to last season as both a passer and a runner, plus an added downfield weapon this offseason, gives him real QB1-tier upside from a late-round draft slot.
• 07/30 Medium He closed last season on a strong run leaning on his rushing floor, making him a viable late-round streaming-caliber quarterback target even with typical rookie-passer variance.
• 07/29 High (0%) A full offseason as the unquestioned starter, continued rapport with a receiving corps that includes multiple established pass-catchers, and a proven ability to create with his legs give him weekly QB2 upside after already flashing efficient, high-floor play as a rookie starter.
• 07/28 High (60%) A late-season surge under a pace-pushing offensive system produced top-eight weekly scoring over the final two months, and the addition of a talented rookie receiver plus real rushing equity give him a legitimate path to outkick his current draft cost.
• 07/27 Low (100%) His high touchdown-to-interception efficiency down the stretch last season is likely unsustainable, and a new offensive coordinator's projected pace and passing structure add further uncertainty to his outlook.
• 07/26 High Strong rushing production down the stretch plus an improved receiving corps around him give him real QB1 upside as a late-round dart in an offense expected to take a leap.
• 07/24 High (0%) He averaged 300 passing yards and 24 fantasy points over his final three games, and improved weapons give the late breakout room to continue.
• 07/24 Medium (58%) A top-four fantasy finish over the final six weeks now pairs with improved blocking and several new pass-game weapons.
• 07/24 Low (0%) A late-season surge, modest rushing ability, and major additions to the supporting cast make him an appealing late-round lottery ticket.
• 07/22 Medium (55%) Offensive continuity, upgraded weapons, an aggressive passing approach, and useful rushing ability create late-round upside, with the strongest value coming in Superflex formats.
• 07/21 Medium (45%) He averaged more than 18 fantasy points after settling into the job and now has an improved supporting cast, offering upside at a late-round QB19 cost.
• 07/19 High (0%) His dual-threat ability produced top-five quarterback numbers late last season, and improved weapons, line play, and scheme fit create room for better volume and efficiency.
• 07/18 Medium (69%) He became a usable fantasy starter after taking over last season and added meaningful rushing production, while new skill-position help and a fast-paced offense give him a path to outperform his modest draft cost.
• 07/17 Low (0%) He produced QB1-level totals after taking over the starting job, added useful rushing yards, and now gets upgraded weapons in Jordyn Tyson and Travis Etienne.
• 07/16 High (0%) Efficient passing, designed rushing work, faster offensive pace, and upgraded weapons create top-12 upside at a late quarterback cost.
• 07/16 Medium (44%) Improved downfield passing and modest rushing production give him a steady floor, though his ceiling is better suited to a high-end QB2 than an every-week QB1.
• 07/15 High (55%) Offensive continuity, upgraded skill players, an aggressive passing approach, and useful rushing ability make him a strong later-round value, especially in Superflex formats.
• 07/15 High (0%) He produced at least 17.1 fantasy points in each of his final six starts, adds some rushing value, and now has Chris Olave plus first-round receiver Jordyn Tyson on a favorable schedule.
• 07/15 High (0%) He averaged 20.08 fantasy points over his final six games and now gets a second season in a high-tempo offense with an improved line and stronger receiving options at a late-round price.
• 07/15 High (0%) Strong rookie passing efficiency, useful rushing production, and a full offseason with an improved receiving group give him a path to low-end starter value at a modest cost.
• 07/15 High (79%) A late-round acquisition cost and a realistic breakout path make him an appealing upside target, especially in formats that start two quarterbacks.
• 07/15 High (77%) He averaged more than 20 fantasy points across his final eight rookie appearances, adds useful rushing production, and now has a deeper group of pass catchers in a quarterback-friendly offensive system.
• 07/14 High (0%) A full offseason as the starter, improved weapons, and meaningful designed rushing give him a cheaper path to top-12 quarterback production.
• 07/14 Medium (0%) He produced QB1-level numbers over the second half of his rookie season, adds functional rushing production and now has a deeper group of pass catchers in an improving offense.
• 07/13 High (0%) Late-season QB1 production, hidden rushing usage, added receiving weapons, and a fast-paced offense create useful late-round quarterback upside.
• 07/12 High (0%) A strong late-2025 starting stretch, modest rushing contribution, and added first-round receiver give him a realistic late-round quarterback payoff.

Justin Joly is a low-priority dart throw in deeper dynasty leagues. As a fifth-round rookie tight end behind an established starter in a multiple-TE scheme, his immediate role is rotational and limits near-term production. While his receiving profile provides long-term upside, the floor is very low for 2026.

• 09/01 Low (0%) Fifth-round rookie tight end with a strong receiving resume in a passing offense that has signaled a desire for more receiving versatility from the position. Likely opens in a rotational role behind an established starter, capping near-term value even though the long-term receiving profile is real.
• 07/31 Low (0%) Athletic rookie behind an inconsistent starter in a scheme that regularly deploys multiple tight ends, creating a path to relevance but no clear current role.
• 07/14 Low (0%) A jumbo-slot receiving profile gives him PPR sleeper potential if his route participation expands.

DK Metcalf's draft stock is built on name recognition rather than recent production. A declining quarterback, added target competition (Michael Pittman Jr., Germie Bernard), and an undisclosed injury limiting practice time all point to a diminished role and lower ceiling than typical WR2/3 expectations. The risk of missing his ADP value far outweighs the potential for a boom-week performance.

• 08/29 Ignore (77%) Career lows in targets and touchdowns with a quarterback who doesn't favor downfield shots, plus new target competition, undercut a price still driven mostly by name recognition.
• 08/23 Ignore (75%) Was inconsistent stretching the field and scoring in the red zone last season, and added receiving competition at his own position threatens to cut into his target share at his current price.
• 08/21 Low (75%) A new veteran addition and a rookie threaten to cut into his red-zone and downfield target share after he was not reliable enough at scoring last season.
• 08/20 Low (0%) An undisclosed injury has kept him out of practice with no diagnosis or return timetable given, and the missed work is cutting into time needed to build chemistry with a new quarterback in a new offense.
• 08/20 Low A newly added veteran teammate appears better suited to the quarterback's current role, creating a real chance he outproduces this player.
• 08/19 Low (45%) Finished last season as a fringe WR3 despite name recognition, now catching passes from an aging quarterback with a declining arm, while a new receiver addition via trade adds fresh competition for targets in an offense breaking in a new coaching staff.
• 08/16 Ignore (0%) Metcalf's overall fantasy finish leaned heavily on touchdown spikes rather than a stable weekly target share, and an aging quarterback with a diminished deep-ball average plus new receiver competition threatens his weekly floor.
• 08/07 Low (0%) Added target competition in the receiving corps this offseason changes the target distribution compared to last year, tempering his standalone target share.
• 08/05 Low (70%) His new offensive situation is considered a step down from his prior environment, raising real questions about target quality and scheme fit compared to his previous production levels.
• 08/01 Low He posted five-year lows in targets and catches last season, and his new quarterback throws the ball out faster and shorter than almost any qualifying passer, a poor stylistic fit for his downfield skill set, while a new teammate with a track record of 100-plus targets may siphon volume at a fraction of his current draft cost.
• 07/30 Low (57%) A shallow-target-depth quarterback stripped away the deep-shot role that made him a difference-maker previously, and a new possession receiver addition could further siphon short-area volume even if per-route efficiency held up.
• 07/30 Low (70%) A crowded receiver room in a West Coast scheme that rewards route-runners who win underneath, a skill set that newer additions may execute better than he does.
• 07/30 Low (72%) Declining yards per target over the last two seasons combined with a 43-year-old quarterback under center point to muted passing volume and a likely third straight season under 1,000 yards.
• 07/29 Medium Finished as a middling weekly option last season as the offense's primary target, and further coaching and personnel changes could pressure his target share even more.
• 07/26 Ignore (0%) He finished outside a usable weekly floor in most games last season even with minimal target competition, and added competition at receiver and tight end this offseason only adds downside.
• 07/26 Ignore (77%) Career-low target and yardage marks last season came before added competition for looks arrived this offseason, and his quarterback situation does not favor a heavy downfield role.
• 07/23 Low (100%) Michael Pittman Jr. adds reliable target competition to an already low-volume passing offense, increasing the risk of inconsistent production from a downfield role.
• 07/22 Medium (44%) A more receiver-friendly offense should lift passing volume, but added target competition and a quarterback who rarely attacks deep limit him to modest WR3 expectations.
• 07/18 Medium (64%) A deeper route tree with more schemed shots and isolation targets fits his vertical strengths after he saw only 16 deep targets last season. Target volume may remain near 100, leaving him volatile, but the big-play environment improves his breakout-week upside.
• 07/17 Low (0%) He has not delivered a top-20 finish since 2022 and remains tied to an inconsistent offense, making him better suited to a boom-or-bust WR3 price.
• 07/16 Ignore (0%) A slower, run-first offense plus added competition from Michael Pittman and Germie Bernard compounds a recent career-low target rate for a receiver dependent on downfield volume.
• 07/16 Low (51%) A reunion between the offensive play-caller and quarterback may improve Pittsburgh's passing game, but relying on a 42-year-old passer makes a return to consistent WR2 production doubtful.
• 07/12 Ignore A possession receiver addition and a conservative passing environment point toward low-volume, boom-or-bust usage.

Goedert's draft value is best categorized as medium: his ADP accurately reflects the high likelihood of touchdown regression, but the opportunity vacuum from A.J. Brown's departure gives him a realistic path to target volume that could offset some decline. The risk of a full step back is balanced by the discounted cost, making him a reasonable mid-round target with an uncertain but not unattainable ceiling.

• 09/03 Ignore (100%) Last season's touchdown output significantly outpaced his end-zone target volume relative to other tight ends, pointing to real regression risk even in a good offense.
• 08/24 Medium (64%) His target rate more than doubles in games without a key receiver teammate on the field, and that receiver is no longer on the roster at all, setting up a clear opportunity bump on top of his usual red-zone role.
• 08/19 Low (77%) Current draft cost outpaces his expected weekly production relative to other options available at a similar or later cost.
• 08/19 Low (51%) Touchdown production has been heavily concentrated and inconsistent year to year, and durability at his age makes another double-digit touchdown season unlikely.
• 08/19 High (0%) The departure of the team's top target competitor leaves little proven competition for looks, positioning him for weekly top-12 production at a discounted draft price.
• 08/17 Low (72%) Touchdown regression looks likely after an unsustainably high scoring rate last season, and his yards-per-catch also fell to a career low.
• 08/15 High (0%) Provides strong ADP value in the later rounds as a reliable fall-back option at the position, offering a proven receiving role at a discounted draft cost.
• 08/15 Medium (64%) Saw his low red-zone usage spike last season with 11 touchdowns on 15 red-zone targets, established as a reliable seam-stretching outlet in the passing game.
• 08/14 Medium (31%) Last year's top-five finish is being drafted at a steep discount, and the receivers who would otherwise absorb his vacated target share are either not yet in the first-team offense or dealing with an injury, leaving a clear path to reclaim significant volume.
• 08/09 High (0%) Playing a contract year with the top receiver out of the lineup positions him as the clear second read in the passing game, opening a path to a career-best season.
• 08/07 Low (51%) Last year's touchdown total looks like a career outlier compared to his own recent history, and durability concerns make repeating that scoring rate unlikely.
• 08/04 Low (0%) A career-high touchdown total last season was driven by a specific short-yardage role that defenses are now better prepared for, pointing to reversion toward his more typical target-share-based production level.
• 08/03 High (0%) A departed top receiver opens more target share even after an unsustainable touchdown rate last year, giving a TE14 price real room to outperform as the passing offense redistributes looks.
• 08/03 Medium A new coordinator's emphasis on multiple-tight-end personnel groupings should mean more snaps and more designed looks, boosting his role beyond what a single-tight-end offense would provide.
• 08/02 Medium (70%) With a top receiver departing his offense, he has a realistic path to a top-two role in the target hierarchy and has a track record of consistent red-zone usage.
• 07/31 Low (45%) Last season's touchdown rate on a per-target basis was an outlier more than twice his career norm, and touchdown-dependent seasons like that are prone to regression.
• 07/30 Low (54%) Scored well above his expected-touchdown total on unusually efficient red-zone conversion last year and has never approached that scoring rate in any other season, pointing to a significant step back.
• 07/29 Low Last season's career-best scoring at age 30 was driven mostly by an unsustainable touchdown rate, and a new pass-catching tight end addition further squeezes his role.
• 07/26 Low (100%) Last year's touchdown total was propped up by an unsustainable rate of short-yardage scores while his underlying receiving efficiency hit career lows, and a rookie draft pick at his position could further cut into his snaps.
• 07/23 Ignore (60%) Eleven touchdowns are likely to regress, per-route efficiency is declining, and a drafted rookie could reduce his full-time role.
• 07/21 Low (70%) Declining route efficiency, likely touchdown regression and a receiving-specialist rookie taking snaps leave his 2025 scoring difficult to repeat.
• 07/19 Low (24%) A.J. Brown's departure frees targets, and a new offensive coordinator could lift passing volume enough to offset likely touchdown regression.
• 07/18 Medium (77%) Jalen Hurts has leaned on him when A.J. Brown is absent, and an 11-touchdown season showed his red-zone value. He can finish second on the team in targets without requiring an early pick.
• 07/18 High (57%) A.J. Brown's departure leaves the offense without another physical pass catcher, giving him a strong path to more contested and red-zone targets despite likely touchdown regression.
• 07/15 Low (0%) An 11-touchdown spike masked a receiving-yardage finish outside the top 12, while declining route efficiency, added target competition and a highly drafted successor make last year's production unlikely to repeat.
• 07/15 Low (60%) His touchdown rate spiked far above his career norm while yards per catch fell to a career low, and reduced spacing plus two rookie pass catchers make sustained top-tier production unlikely.
• 07/15 High (77%) A major target competitor is gone, his quarterback already trusts him, and six consecutive top-12 seasons show a stable role even if last year's touchdown rate regresses.
• 07/12 Ignore (100%) Career-low underlying usage and touchdown-driven production point to regression, making him a poor bet to remain a reliable starting fantasy tight end at draft cost.

Recurring hamstring issues have erased most of his preseason and dropped his ADP significantly, but his first-round draft capital and elite college production give him legitimate WR3 upside if healthy. The current cost reflects heavy risk, making him a viable mid-round target only if you're willing to stash a high-upside asset with a slow start likely.

• 09/01 Low A first-round pick still going at a very cheap price in drafts despite a rough preseason, leaving real untapped upside available at minimal cost.
• 08/31 Medium (44%) With a proven receiver's departure clearing the WR2 role behind a receiver who now becomes the clear top target, he steps into a stable quarterback situation with a track record of producing 1,000-yard seasons for his top two options, at a fair mid-round cost.
• 08/22 Low (79%) Missed the bulk of training camp with an injury, cutting into the reps needed to carve out a rookie-season role and dropping his draft value.
• 08/20 Low (0%) Recurring hamstring trouble has cost him significant camp time on top of an earlier offseason hamstring injury, allowing other receivers in a crowded room to gain ground in the competition for early-season targets.
• 08/20 Ignore A rookie already missing camp time with a hamstring injury projects to a capped WR2 ceiling behind an established starter as a slow-developing option.
• 08/19 Low (75%) Working back from a hamstring injury into a crowded receiver room with real vacated targets, but faces stiff competition from veterans for a consistent route share.
• 08/18 Low (0%) He is projected to remain the clear second receiving option on his team, but a first-time offensive playcaller and a quarterback who graded below average in efficiency last season temper the passing-game ceiling. The offense also already features two receivers likely to see significant target volume, splitting the pie further and making the current draft cost a bit rich for the expected role.
• 08/18 Low (0%) As a rookie he has now re-injured the same hamstring that first bothered him during the offseason program, and stacked strains to the same muscle group are a common precursor to further missed time. With most of training camp already lost, a significant early-season role now looks unlikely even though the talent profile remains a longer-term stash.
• 08/18 Low (75%) Also nursing a hamstring issue, and the top target vacated by a departed star projects to go mostly to a more established teammate, leaving him competing for scraps.
• 08/16 High (0%) Lemon averaged three-plus yards per route run against both man and zone coverage as a rookie, matching the versatile receiver profile the new coordinator's diverse route tree is built around.
• 08/15 Low A lingering hamstring issue has kept him out of camp entirely while a fellow receiver standing out could win a Week 1 starting role over him, clouding his floor early in the season despite strong long-term outlook.
• 08/14 Low (0%) Missed valuable training camp reps with a hamstring setback and was already losing the second receiver role to a more established teammate, leaving fantasy-relevant snap count in real doubt.
• 08/12 Low A lingering hamstring injury has cost him practice time in a critical camp window, raising real risk of a slow start or re-aggravation, even though the opportunity created by two ahead-of-him receivers dealing with absences and his own high draft capital keep him worth revisiting once healthy.
• 08/10 Ignore (0%) Being drafted as if he immediately fills a departed veteran's full target share as a rookie, when a more realistic outcome likely comes several rounds later than his current price.
• 08/10 High The only receiver in this class producing at a high route-efficiency rate against both man and zone coverage, a statistical profile that has historically matched proven NFL difference-makers.
• 08/07 Low (70%) Multiple soft-tissue injuries since being drafted raise durability concerns that cloud his path to a reliable role.
• 08/07 Medium A first-round rookie slotted in as the clear No. 2 receiver behind the top target, giving him a higher offensive ceiling than the other depth options even in a lower-volume passing attack.
• 08/05 Medium A first-round rookie with a talent ceiling that likely exceeds the veterans competing alongside him, but a hamstring injury cost him valuable spring reps and his primarily slot-oriented usage adds some role uncertainty heading into the season.
• 08/05 Low (0%) Landing in a historically low-pass-rate offense with several established pass-catchers already competing for targets makes his current mid-round ADP an expensive, low-floor bet as a rookie.
• 08/04 High (100%) Elite target volume (79 catches, 1,156 yards, 11 TD, top-five nationally in receiving yardage) paired with strong separation ability points to an early WR3-or-better role, giving him one of the safer receiving floors in this rookie class.
• 08/04 Medium (54%) Steps into a full-time role in a productive passing offense as a rookie, with a projected target share that supports meaningful weekly flex value even before accounting for in-season growth.
• 08/04 Medium (79%) Landed in a spot with a path to early playing time and target opportunity as a rookie receiver.
• 08/03 Medium A first-round investment brought in specifically to replace a departed veteran receiver, with clear slot experience in college that fits the offense's two-receiver looks, gives him a real path to early playing time as a rookie.
• 07/31 Ignore (0%) Joining one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league that also rarely targets the middle of the field where he is most effective, with two other proven veteran additions further clouding his target share.
• 07/31 Medium (64%) Strong route-running traits and comfort working traffic areas project him into a No. 2 receiver role that supports flex-caliber weeks as a rookie.
• 07/30 High (0%) A star receiver's exit vacates a huge chunk of targets, and this rookie's elite ball skills and separation ability give him a real path to an immediate slot role as a reliable underneath outlet.
• 07/29 Must Have (100%) Landing as the clear No. 2 receiver behind an established starter, with a route-running and yards-after-catch profile that fits an offensive scheme built on timing and leverage, points to early, high-floor production for a rookie.
• 07/28 Medium (79%) A first-round rookie who profiles as the clear No. 2 receiving option in his offense has a higher ceiling than the veteran depth pieces around him, giving him a realistic path to flex value even in a lower-volume passing attack.
• 07/26 High (0%) A significant target share opened up after a veteran receiver's departure, and his advanced route running gives him a clear 1B role in an offense that throws frequently.
• 07/25 Low (0%) Creative usage can manufacture touches and unlock big plays in Philadelphia, though heavy target competition may delay consistent weekly volume.
• 07/23 High (79%) A clear path to Philadelphia's starting slot role and a top-three target share gives the first-round rookie realistic WR3 or flex upside even in a lower-volume passing offense.
• 07/21 High (70%) First-round capital, elite college target production and versatility at every depth give him a profile capable of beating a WR35 draft cost without leading the team in targets.
• 07/21 Medium (28%) A major departure opens the No. 2 receiver role immediately, giving the first-round rookie a path to flex production at a favorable draft cost.
• 07/16 Medium (0%) A.J. Brown's departure elevates him to a clear starting role, and polished short-to-intermediate route running fills a need in the passing game even if his ADP rises.
• 07/16 Medium (0%) A polished route-running profile and immediate WR2 role create real volume, although the quarterback's reluctance to target the middle lowers the ceiling.
• 07/14 High (0%) First-round capital, elite college production, and a clear starting role in a condensed passing attack create a plausible 25% target-share ceiling.
• 07/14 High (0%) Elite production and strong after-catch ability should translate into an immediate high-volume slot or flanker role.