Week 13 Advice

Experts are split: one flags a missed 3-target opportunity and unreliability vs. Green Bay, which argues for sitting in lineups that need floor. Vinnie Iyer counters that Williams has clear big-play upside and should be involved in Detroit’s passing game, making him a valuable high-upside start. Weighting the two, the decision hinges on risk tolerance — the upside (long-touchdown potential) outweighs the downside for most lineups that can absorb a zero. Recommend starting Williams as a boom-or-bust flex/WR3: you get upside while accepting volatility. Monitor last-minute target reports and injury/news, and pivot if routes/targets look limited.

• 11/25 Start (75%) Recommended as a Start — despite a recent goose egg, he has big-play potential and should be involved in Lions’ passing attack.
• 11/25 Sit Failed to convert 3 targets; unreliable and not trustworthy for upcoming matchup vs Green Bay.

Both sources advise benching Pitts this week. Key points: very limited recent production and target share (recent PPG roughly ~6.5 half-PPR with the new QB situation), a cited QB change (sources flagged Kirk Cousins under center) that historically suppresses Pitts' fantasy output, and offense is leaking targets to other pass-catchers—reducing Pitts' upside. Given the consensus to avoid him, the thin supporting evidence for a bounce-back (low target floor, competition in passing game) and no clear injury-driven increase in role, the safest actionable play this week is to sit Pitts. Monitor target share and any emerging injuries that could restore upside; if cutthroat roster needs exist, dropping him is reasonable, but immediate lineup move should be to bench.

• 11/25 Sit (100%) Article explicitly advises 'don't bother with Kyle Pitts' and to bench him due to the Jets leaking targets to other offensive players—labeled a bust candidate.
• 11/25 Drop (100%) Article recommends cutting Pitts after a QB change (Kirk Cousins under center) and limited recent production (averaged ~6.5 half-PPR PPG with Cousins historically); returning teammates and QB decline further limit upside.

Two of three experts recommend sitting Swift for Week 13. ESPN (Cockcroft) and another analyst note Swift has lost a significant role to rookie Kyle Monangai (Swift ~43% snaps vs Monangai ~56%) and is seeing fewer touches — limiting his ceiling and reliability. The lone start recommendation (Rotoballer) appears to be matchup-driven, but the weight of usage data and role reduction makes Swift a risky play. Recommendation: Sit unless there is a clear role-reversal (injury to Monangai or Swift posts snap share spike before kickoff).

• 11/25 Sit (100%) Lost significant role to rookie Kyle Monangai (Swift 43% snaps vs Monangai 56%, fewer touches) — neither profile as more than a weak flex; sit in Week 13 vs Eagles unless role clarity changes.
• 11/25 Sit Lost touches to Monangai and faces a brutal schedule; risky to start unless matchup or injury forces it.
• 11/25 Start (100%) Included as a start-sit option in the Week 13 write-up; his role and matchup make him a recommended start candidate per the article.

Consensus from multiple experts: Chase is returning from a one-game suspension with Joe Burrow expected back under center and Tee Higgins out with a concussion. That combination should restore Burrow-to-Chase chemistry and elevate Chase to clear No. 1 receiver targets/volume for the Bengals on Thanksgiving vs Baltimore. While Baltimore’s defense is strong, the matchup risk is outweighed by Chase’s target share, route-running role, and big-play upside after returning — start him. Note risk: potential rust after suspension and any lingering game availability updates for Higgins or Burrow; monitor final inactives, but plan to start.

• 11/25 Add (100%) Eligible to return from suspension and can assume No. 1 receiver duties for the Bengals — add if available, especially if Tee Higgins is in concussion protocol.
• 11/25 Start (75%) Start — his return from suspension is huge, drawing attention and improving the offense for Burrow and teammates.
• 11/25 Start (100%) Returning from a one-game suspension with Joe Burrow expected to return under center; Tee Higgins is out with a concussion which should increase Chase's target share for the Bengals' Thanksgiving game vs BAL.

Both experts recommend adding Dowdle after he stepped into an expanded role following Chuba Hubbard’s injury. He’s produced multiple massive fantasy performances (including multiple 30-point games), showing clear upside and immediate starting value in shallow leagues. The Panthers’ offense has been stagnant, which introduces risk that coaches could limit or re-distribute touches, so long-term volume isn’t guaranteed. Recommendation: add now for upside — start in shallow/most standard leagues if you need RB help or are chasing upside; in deep leagues add as a handcuff/high-upside bench stash and monitor snap share, goal-line work, and Hubbard’s injury updates. Key factors: increased role after Hubbard injury, demonstrated elite single-game ceiling, coaching/offsense uncertainty, and need to monitor usage week-to-week. Action balances expert consensus and tangible performance evidence while flagging sustainability risk.

• 11/25 Add (100%) Article suggests the Panthers could benefit from getting Dowdle more involved after a stagnant offense; he already saw some touches and could see an increased role if coaches adjust.
• 11/25 Add (100%) Stepped into increased role after Chuba Hubbard's injury and has multiple massive fantasy games (one of three backs with multiple 30-point games); add for upside and immediate starting value in shallow leagues.

Consensus of multiple experts recommends starting Rice for Week 13: he’s coming off an 8-catch, 141-yard breakout and faces a Dallas secondary that yields ~39.1 FPPG to WRs. Matchup and recent usage point to high target volume and upside in a likely high-scoring Chiefs vs. Cowboys Thanksgiving game. Primary risks are target competition (Hill/Kelce) and potential game-script variation, but the upside and expert agreement justify starting him as a WR2/FLEX.

• 11/25 Start (75%) Start — coming off an 8-catch, 141-yard game and presents a favorable matchup vs Cowboys corners; high upside.
• 11/25 Start (100%) Coming off his best game and facing a Dallas secondary that allows 39.1 FPPG to WRs; labeled the top Thanksgiving fantasy option.
• 11/25 Start (64%) Ranked as the WR2 for Week 13 with a matchup vs. Dallas — advised to start and play in the Chiefs vs. Cowboys Thanksgiving game.

All three analysts recommend starting Kelce this week. The consensus reasoning: Kelce remains an elite, high-target-volume tight end with heavy red-zone usage and a reliably high target share in Kansas City's passing game, which gives him a strong floor and upside. Tim Heaney specifically calls the Dallas matchup favorable; Vinnie Iyer projects a rebound game with strong volume and red-zone opportunities; Sporting News/Griffin Missant emphasizes treating Kelce as a regular start on Thanksgiving. Risk is low relative to reward — even if Dallas creates pressure, Kelce’s role and target share should keep him involved. Recommendation: START Kelce as your TE1 and lock him in.

• 11/25 Start (100%) The rankings explicitly back Kelce as an elite Week 13 TE with a favorable matchup at Dallas; elite role and high target share make him a reliable start.
• 11/25 Start (75%) Start Kelce — targeted often and should have a big rebound game; strong red-zone and volume projection against Dallas.
• 11/25 Start (100%) Article advises playing Kelce as you normally would; he remains a start-grade tight end on Thanksgiving.

Clear consensus to start: three independent analysts highlight sustained elite production (seven straight games with 20+ fantasy points), massive target share/red-zone usage, and historic efficiency (4.5 yards per route run — highest in the last decade). Matt Harmon’s efficiency metrics and high first-down rate (20.2% of his routes) show Jax is operating as a true WR1, not just volume-dependent. ESPN projects him as the Week 13 WR1 vs the Vikings, and NBC calls him the season’s story — a hot streak with both volume and per-route efficiency backing it up. Risk is low: no conflicting expert views, and the matchup is considered favorable enough for a WR1 projection. Recommendation: start Jaxon Smith-Njigba in all formats; he offers a high floor (consistent 20+ point weeks) and a high ceiling (big-play/red-zone usage).

• 11/25 Start (100%) Elite efficiency (4.5 yards per route run, highest in last decade) and high first-down rate (20.2% of routes) — operating as a true WR1 with historic efficiency.
• 11/25 Start (100%) Seven straight games of 20+ fantasy points, high target share and big-play/red-zone usage — projected as the WR1 for Week 13 vs the Vikings.
• 11/25 Start (100%) Article describes Smith-Njigba as 'the story of the fantasy season' and highlights a 'stunning performance' — strong indicator to start him while he's producing at a high level and on a hot streak.